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Economy

Brazil central bank projects inflation reaching 5.2% by late 2026

By The Likely · Updated Sep 28, 5:22 PM ET · Drawn from 2 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

The central bank projected on September 24 that annual inflation will reach 5.2% by late 2026. On September 25, IBGE reported that 12-month IPCA-15 inflation reached 4.47%, up from 4.24% in the previous period.

Why it mattersThe 12-month rate of 4.47% sits just below the 4.5% ceiling of Brazil's inflation target band, while remaining above the official 3% target.

Brazil inflation below 4.00% Very likely83%▲ from 10% yesterday

How we got here

  1. The BCB published its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, projecting inflation of 3.2% for 2028Q1 and 5.2% by late 2026. Br, Br
  2. IBGE reported September IPCA-15 inflation reached 0.70% for the month and 4.47% over twelve months. Br

What's likely next

  1. Copom’s next scheduled two-day policy meeting.
  2. Copom minutes are scheduled for release at 11:00; the calendar does not specify a time zone.
  3. Copom’s next scheduled two-day policy meeting; minutes are scheduled for December 15 at 11:00, and the 2026Q4 Monetary Policy Report is scheduled for December 17 at 11:00. The calendar does not specify a time zone.
  4. Brazil inflation below 4.00%Very likely83%▲ from 10% yesterday

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