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Elections Abroad

The Writ projects Parti Québécois leading in 68 seats

By The Likely · Updated Sep 30, 6:59 AM ET · Drawn from 7 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

The Writ projected on September 28 that the Parti Québécois leads in 68 seats. A party needs 64 of the National Assembly's 127 seats to form a majority government.

Why it mattersA majority would give the party the legislative strength to pursue a planned independence referendum in 2029.

How we got here

  1. The Lieutenant-Governor dissolved the National Assembly, initiating the election period. Ca
  2. Post-debate polls indicated no significant movement among voters. Ca
  3. A survey recorded 29 percent support for the PQ among decided voters, with 65 percent wanting government change. Leger360
  4. Quebec's five main party leaders held their final French-language debate, focusing on independence and the province's future in Canada. Ca
  5. Party leaders clashed over independence, health care, and immigration during the debate as the campaign entered its final stretch. Ca
  6. Léger’s later survey fieldwork began; it ran through September 27. Leger360
  7. Advance voting began, and a poll placed the PQ at 30 percent and the CAQ at 17 percent. Ca, Ca
  8. An updated projection placed the PQ in the lead for 68 seats, while a poll recorded CAQ support at 16 percent. Ca, Leger360
  9. Voting resumed at returning officers' offices, continuing as an active voting option. Ca
  10. Québec’s provincial election polling day. Ca

What's likely next

  1. The provincial general election is scheduled for October 5, 2026.
  2. Quebec voters are scheduled to elect members to the National Assembly.
  3. Parti Québécois win at least 64 seats in Quebec’s 2026 general electionLikely68%▲ from 32% a week ago

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