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Severe Weather Europe forecasts relative Pacific warmth peaking above three degrees

By The Likely · Updated Sep 28, 5:26 PM ET · Drawn from 5 sources · Written by AI, checked against sources

It forecast a November–December peak above plus 3 degrees Celsius on a relative scale.

Why it mattersNOAA gives a 75% chance that October–December RONI reaches at least plus 2.5 degrees, a level historic since 1950.

How we got here

  1. The experimental SPEAR forecast indicated a slightly weaker peak while still projecting a historically strong El Niño. Gov
  2. Researchers published an update with a Niño 3.4 index of +3.0°C and a model outlook favoring a very strong event. Edu
  3. NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled. Gov

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